Sunday, November 06, 2011

Netanyahu and Barak are playing with Fire

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Barak are pushing the world, and by world, I means the United States into a conflict which will have global consequences.  The Prime Minister and the Minister of Defense of Israel are going to spark a conflagration that will consume the world. 

 Netanyahu and  Barak would have the world believe that Israel stands resolute in it's willingness to use the military in resolving the Iranian nuclear question.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) Head of Staff Beni Gantz, Mossad Director Tamir Pardo, Head of Aman (IDF Military Intelligence Corps) Aviv Cochabi and the Head of Shin Beth Yoram Cohenall have publicly stated their direct and unflagging opposition to a military strike against Iran.   Not only are they against the military option, both Pardo and  Gantz feel that military strikes would be insufficient in stopping the Iranian Nuclear program.  Israel’s top generals privately state that military strikes would only slow down the Iranian nuclear program by 5 to 7 years.  

From a western perspective let us look at what a military option would look like. 

1) No matter how loud Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Barak snarl, bark, and shout, they would NEVER attack Iran without American and NATO support.

2)  A Coalition strike by American, NATO, and Israeli planes would in no way  deter Iran from future attempts to produce, obtain, or even purchase a nuclear weapon on the black market.  

3) Even if the Coalition strikes by American, NATO, and Israeli planes eradicated the entire Iranian nuclear program, the Iranians would simply rebuild.  The funny thing would be that Iran would use the West's own money vis-a-vie funds obtained from the sale of oil to the west to rebuild their nuclear program.    

4) Another thing is if Israel, by means of a FALSE FLAG operation, forces the West in a situation where there is no other option but Coalition military strikes, the entire Western economies will collapse due to the interruption of the free flow of oil out of the Middle East. 

5) Oil is the life blood of the world's economies.  Iran is the 4th largest producer of oil to the Western Democracies, nearly 5 million barrels a day.  If 5 million barrels of oil a day suddenly disappears from the Global supply; the Western Democracies would be looking at domestic gasoline prices of $80.00 to $120.00 US dollars a gallon. That would be until there would be no more oil for public consumption.  All domestic transportation, trains, 18-wheelers, personal cars, shipping, aircraft would grind to a halt, and with them the Western Democracies economies.

6) Iran is a highly populated, dispersed mountainous country.  Most of Iran's military centers are dug deep underneath metallic rich rock strata.  Which means, that any bombing would have to be highly accurate, struck repeatedly, with the heaviest ordinances from the biggest planes in the US inventories.  Israel doesn't have the aircraft nor does it posses the armaments necessary to accomplish the mission.    If Israel went into Iran they would HAVE to have American and NATO support. Israel cannot go the course alone. 

7) Even if Israel and it's Coalition friends were to accomplish the mission of ending the Iranian nuclear program there is the question of Iran's geography and it's stranglehold on the 'Strait of Hormuz. ' The 'Straits of Hormuz' is a narrow, strategically VITAL waterway between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. On the north coast is Iran and on the south coast is the United Arab Emirates(UAE)
The strait at its narrowest is 34 miles wide. It is the only sea passage to the open ocean for large areas of the petroleum-exporting Persian Gulf. Currently 20 tankers carrying 15.5 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait a day.  That means when Iran retaliates for the Israeli led Coalition airstrikes against it's nuclear program  33 percent of the world's seaborne oil shipments will come to a grinding halt.  Again, very easily Iran will be able to strike at the Western Democracies with out even having to leave its own back yard. 

8)  Right now Iran is not fully united in it's desire for Israels destruction.  If Israeli led Coalition forces are successful in stopping Iran's nuclear program for 5-7 years.  What will happen 8-12 years from now when Iran DOES have a nuclear bomb.  What then?  I will tell you what then, Iranian hardliners will have political, military, and popular support for a nuclear first strike against Israel.

9) If the Western Democracies allow Israel to force them into a military confrontation with Iran, and by some miracle the Coalition forces can keep Iran from interrupting the flow and production of oil from the Middle East and by some miracle the Coalition Forces can keep the global reprisals of Islamic terrorism in check, the blow back from Israeli led Coalition airstrikes may be a decade in coming, but when  it does it WILL be nuclear in response and not limited to just Israel and the Middle East.

10) Lastly, but most importantly, it will be American, French, and British boys dying in the mountains of Iran by the tens of thousands because Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Barak, elected to lead Israel are incapable or UNWILLING to seek a more noble path to peace in the Middle East 

R.D.Anding III


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